The bar says the shopper has reached free delivery, but checkout disagrees
That should not happen, because the bar measures the basket exactly the way WooCommerce's own free shipping method measures it — the same subtotal, the same handling of tax display, and coupons subtracted only when the method is set to subtract them.
If you see a disagreement, check the Setup screen: if Coupons and discounts has been changed away from Follow the shipping method, the bar is deliberately counting differently from checkout. Setting it back to Follow the shipping method restores the guarantee.
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